Modeling

For future traffic and land use projections, the NFRMPO uses two separate but related models: the 2040 Regional Travel Demand Model (RTDM) and the 2040 Land Use Allocation Model (LUAM). Both use a base year of 2012 and can provide information for the following years: 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040. Both models are based on information collected from member agencies, who provided feedback to ensure reliability and to incorporate local inputs.

Both models were created based on local input to estimate future growth in population, employment, and traffic volumes. Local and state agencies provided current land uses, future land uses, population estimates, and employment estimates. Using this information, the 2040 LUAM can allocate future growth into zones. Based on this expected information, the 2040 RTDM can then estimate how and where people will travel in future years.

The LUAM is an ArcGIS-based application, which uses information provided by local and state agencies to estimate how growth will occur through 2040. Specifically, the LUAM forecasts the location and timing of development and the resulting employment and household growth. The output information is then incorporated into the 2040 RTDM.

The 2040 RTDM uses the four-step model to allocate traffic volumes:

  • Trip generation predicts the number of trips expected to originate or be destined for each traffic analysis zone;
  • Trip distribution estimates the number of trips to be taken between each origin and destination;
  • Mode choice estimates how people will travel, such as by bicycle, transit, or by auto; and
  • Route assignment details the route traffic will take between zones.

Model Documentation

2040 NFRMPO Travel Model Documentation
2040 NFRMPO Land Use Documentation
2040 Economic and Demographic Forecast
2010 Front Range Travel Counts: NFRMPO Household Survey

Requesting Data

Model outputs may be used in a variety of ways. Traffic volumes from the 2040 RTDM are often used in traffic studies. As CDOT expands I-25, consultants working with the agency have requested the NFRMPO provide traffic volumes for different scenarios on I-25. The 2040 LUAM has been used by local municipalities to plan for future growth projections.

Local agencies and their consultants may request inputs or outputs from either the 2040 LUAM or the 2040 RTDM. Inquiries should be sent to Becky Karasko, AICP at bkarasko@nfrmpo.org or (970) 416-2257. A form is also available on the NFRMPO’s Data Request page.

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