For future traffic and land use projections, the NFRMPO uses two separate but related models: the 2010 Base Year Land Use Allocation Model (LUAM) and the 2015 Base Year Regional Travel Demand Model (RTDM). Both models forecast out to 2045 and can provide information for the following years: 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045.
The models were created using local input to estimate future growth in population, employment, travel patterns, and traffic volumes. Local agencies provided current land uses, future land uses, development data, traffic counts, and transportation projects. The models were reviewed by local agencies for each model’s base year and the 2045 forecast year to ensure reasonableness.
The 2010 LUAM is built on the UrbanSim platform. The LUAM forecasts the location and timing of development and the resulting employment and household growth at the zonal level. The output information is then incorporated into the 2015 RTDM.
The 2015 RTDM uses the four-step model to estimate travel patterns:
- Trip generation predicts the number of trips expected to originate or be destined for each traffic analysis zone;
- Trip distribution estimates the number of trips to be taken between each origin and destination;
- Mode choice estimates how people will travel, such as by bicycle, transit, or by auto; and
- Route assignment details the route traffic will take between zones.
Model outputs may be used in a variety of ways. Traffic volumes from the 2015 RTDM are often used in traffic studies. As CDOT expands I-25, consultants working with the agency have requested the NFRMPO provide traffic volumes for different scenarios on I-25. The 2010 LUAM has been used by local municipalities to plan for future growth.
Local agencies and their consultants may request inputs or outputs from either the 2010 LUAM or the 2015 RTDM. Inquiries should be sent to Becky Karasko, AICP at email@example.com or (970) 289-8281. A form is also available on the NFRMPO’s Data Request page.